NBA Prop Tool — Playoffs

Data source: NBA CDN (cdn.nba.com) — same method as the MLB tool. Official stats, no API key. Player profiles built from real box scores for the last 21 days. Recent playoff form (L5) weighted 45%, L10 context 20%.

Daily Hit Rate ▼

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Top 5 Picks Today ▼

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Value Checker ▼

Probability Model — Poisson / Normal Distribution

Player

Line

Direction

OVER

UNDER

American Odds

Model Probability

—

Implied Probability

—

L10 Projection

—

Edge

—

Value Rating

-15% 0% +15%

No Value

Marginal

Good

Strong

How it works: Points use a Normal distribution (mean = L5 form, std = 28% of L10). All other props use Poisson (lambda = L5 avg). Playoff form (L5) is weighted 45% in scoring. Edge = model probability minus book implied probability.

Scoring Rubric ▼